Oscar!Watch 2018: My Predictions

04 Mar

Can Alaina finish writing this post in an hour, giving her plenty of time to return the last few Redboxes, grab dinner, make plans for Tuesday, and get her home in time for 8:30?



Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Big SickGet OutLady BirdThe Shape of WaterThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is a packed category. I enjoyed all of these movies to decidedly different degrees. I have a feeling that The Big Sick may replace When Harry Met Sally… as my favorite modern rom-com. However, as much as I would love to see Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon win an Oscar for not only their first screenplay, but also for telling us the story of how they fell in love, I have to put Get Out as the winner here. Jordan Peele did something amazing with Get Out and I think this is where the Academy will reward it.

(I said the same thing last year about Moonlight – Before the ceremony, I figured this is where the Academy will throw the token black guy an award, giving the Best Picture Oscar to the white feel-good story. PROVE ME WRONG AGAIN, OSCARS, I DARE YA)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Call Me By Your Name; The Disaster Artist; Logan; Molly’s Game; Mudbound

I have only seen Logan and half of Mudbound of these nominees. I have no fucking clue, because I hated Mudbound so much


The flames should have at least lit up the nighttime scenes, you’d think.

Look, someday, when I’m not under a time crunch of multiple things, I will rant heavily about the half of Mudbound I watched and the synopsis I read. So, y’know, a traditionally awful rant.

Who’ll the Oscar go to for this category? Who the fuck knows. Probably Call Me By Your Name, because reasons, but I’m going to toss my hat behind Logan, just for funsies.

(I really liked Logan; I’m mad I didn’t watch it before now. I hope it wins. But it’ll probably go to the one that will ruin peaches for a lot of people.)

Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread; Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Jordan Peele, Get Out

Oh, Phantom Thread. Oh, Phantom Thread. What a fucking weird movie. You think you’re watching this movie about a naive girl who gets swept up in the drama and fashion of Reynolds Woodcock, who probably has the word “supergenius” stitched onto his business cards. You kind of wait for Woodcock to get rid of the girl (Alma), but then Alma turns into some sort of Munchausen monster and poisons him with mushrooms so he’ll take a fucking break, then when he recovers he proposes marriage and she accepts, and then their relationship reverts to the hell it was, and then she poisons him again and he likes it, what the fuck

Like, what the fuck

I also fell asleep during Dunkirk and didn’t finish watching it (time crunch! It’s one of the Redboxes I need to return!), so that leaves me with Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, and/or Jordan Peele.

Can … can Greta and Jordan tie? I mean, that would be awesome?!

Honestly, I don’t think Greta Gerwig’s going to win here, which would be a damn shame. Lady Bird is a beautiful movie, and deserves a lot of recognition. I think the Academy will reward Jordan Peele for writing, not directing, which again, damn shame. So I’m going to give the Best Director award to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape Of Water, another gorgeous movie with a lot of moving parts and stellar performances.

(But if Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele steal it from del Toro, I’ll be ecstatic)

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread; Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird; Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Props to Mary J. Blige for doing a fine job in the bits of Mudbound I watched; she is definitely not the reason I hated the movie. Lesley Manville was my favorite part of Phantom Thread. And Octavia Spencer is a goddamned delight in everything she does. But this category comes down to two mothers: Laurie Metcalf’s mother to Lady Bird, and Allison Janney’s overbearing mother in I, Tonya.

This is a tough category. I love Allison Janney and have since she was Julia Stiles’s counselor in Ten Things I Hate About You. And she was great in I, Tonya. She’s also won this category in all award shows leading up to the Oscars.

But Laurie Metcalf’s performance in Lady Bird was wonderfully understated – she didn’t have the big role to throw herself into like Allison Janney did. She had to portray a real person, not a caricature of a real person (not to take away anything from I, Tonya, because I fricking loved that movie) – I don’t think I’m explaining myself right, and my self-imposed time crunch is not letting me take the time to do better.

Can Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf tie? Is that allowed?

I’m going to give the slight edge to Allison Janney in I, Tonya, but only because she’s won all other award shows for this role. If —

I just realized I originally wrote that as Allison Janney in Lady Bird. *sigh*

ANYWAY. I also want Laurie Metcalf to win, and maybe she’ll surprise people? I don’t know, that’d be cool.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water; Christopher Plummer, All The Money In the World; Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Honestly, I would love to see Christopher Plummer win for taking over Kevin Spacey’s role in nine days of filming, but that’s because I’m a petty af bitch (I take after my grandmother in that way), and I think that would just be delightful.

Sam Rockwell will win for his role in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouriand I am conflicted as fuck about it. I enjoy Sam Rockwell a lot – not as much as my brother-in-law, who has actually watched Moon, but that’s another story. And I think he’s deserving of an Oscar. And this role was great, and he was able to do a lot in it.

But his entire character is problematic.

He is introduced as a drunken cop, yelling at a black man(*) who’s doing his job and painting the billboards. I comes out not much after that that Rockwell’s character was caught torturing a black man in custody. And the journey that Rockwell’s character (I can’t remember his name, I’m not really sorry) never addresses the racism. It’s just a piece of him, but he’s able to grow and help Mildred (Frances McDormand) and be somewhat redeemed at the end for most of his dickery?

Problematic, my friend.

(*) portrayed by Darrell Britt-Gibson, who also plays Shitstain on You’re the Worst, and if I haven’t forced you to watch You’re the Worst, please decide to take that up next, okay? Look, Shitstain doesn’t say much in this clip, but I promise you: Sam and his entourage (including Shitstain and Honey-Nutz) are some of the BEST parts of You’re the Worst.

Looking at just the acting piece of it, yes, Sam Rockwell will win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, but please read this article from The Belladonna who goes into a bit more depth on how … icky, I guess is the word I’m looking for, that Three Billboards can be. And I’d like to say that I was mildly aware of the problems before I watched Three Billboards; during Three Billboards, I forgot about the problems. Then I got out of the theater, and the problems came back.

Best Actress
Nominees: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water; Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Margot Robbie, I, Tonya; Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird; Meryl Streep, The Post

Dear god, did I love I, Tonya. It’s an excellent movie. And I thought maybe Margot had a chance.

Then I watched The Shape of Water, and Sally Hawkins jumped to the top of my list. Her character, Eliza, is a mute, and communicates by touch and ASL. She is so good in that movie that you forget that she is not mute in real life.

Britney can attest to this: walking out of The Shape of Water, I turned to her and said, “Frances McDormand had better be fucking amazing to beat Sally Hawkins.”

Reader, she was.

Problems with Three Billboards aside, Frances McDormand has a fantastic performance, so I’m going to go with the flow and say Frances McDormand will win Best Actress again, this time for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Best Actor
Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out; Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I don’t have a lot to say about this category. Gary Oldman will most likely win it for Darkest Hourbecause like Allison Janney and Sam Rockwell and Frances McDormand, he’s also won all awards leading up to the Oscars.

But dammit I want Daniel Kaluuya to win here!

Best Picture
Nominees: Call Me By Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Wow, I’m on Best Picture already? Good for you, Alaina!

Let me eliminate the following: Call Me By Your Name (I didn’t see it, but it’s won nothing except critical accolades leading up to the Oscars); Darkest Hour (I fell asleep during it); Dunkirk (I fell asleep during it); Phantom Thread (what the fuck, man); and The Post (It just didn’t have enough momentum).

So we’re left with Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

As late as last Thursday, I was fully behind Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri for Best Picture, mainly because I enjoyed the movie slightly more than The Shape of Water (no, I don’t know why – maybe it was something they pumped into the theatre; maybe it was the reclining chairs).

The Shape of Water is a stunningly beautiful film, with achingly wonderful performances from every character – even the fish dude! There’s a musical number! It’s a romance with a happy ending! This movie has everything, and has won a lot of Best Films leading up to the Oscars. says The Shape of Water will win Best Picture.

But dudes .. Get Out! It’s a great movie! It taps into the zeitgeist! It’s funny! It’s a horror film! It says something about race that is hard for a lot of people to deal with (holy shit, this anonymous Oscar ballot) but says it well and jesus christ, can this please win Best Picture? PLEASE??!?


Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay: Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (but this could also go to Jordan Peele for Get Out which would be awesome)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Picture: … how about The Shape of Water, because it’s statistically likely, but I really really really want it to go to Get Out

Dammit, I forgot to see how long it took me to write this. But it’s done before 7, so, VICTORY

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Posted by on March 4, 2018 in Oscar!Watch!


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